Great Depression again?

[solidground]

Re: Great Depression again?

^you do realize that there is nothing federal about the federal reserve right?it is a private central bank..Do you feel it is our govts job to bail out these investment companies like baer? Although the bail out prevents a probable depression, it is just making the bubble bigger which will lead to a harder crash and a collapse of the dollar which is inevidible since we have a fiat currency.

[trip]

Re: Great Depression again?

I'll take the other side of the discussion.

Ummmmmm, maybe, how is that for definitive.

1. Cheney, who i do not care for, i'd guess his folio now is just a "preserve capital for retirement and pass onto kids"

at his age and health, he should be looking at taking care of his wife, it's not making 25 mil grow to 50, but having financial security for rest of life

thus, i'm fairly neutral on the conclusion

2. The numbers are horrific, it is what happens when u start a war with no plan, except to stay there forever, i still place the war under lunatic fringe idiocy decisions, zero forethought.

3. 60,000 mfg plants in china, can u say b b b b b......bubble, yup, presently lot's of them sit idle. Since 74 they have been slowly building a good economy to support there population. They saved, they were awash in a tsunami of cash, and thus, they spread the money around there country to the poliicians, well, we know what they did, they knew manufacturing would rise forever and invested thusly, build the plants and they will come. They have huge investments in plants that sit empty, at least we only have houses, at least they will be absorbed, a plant has one purpose manufactur something, if u have nothing, u got a huge montly mortgage payment with no end in sight, who wants to buy a plant if u have no products to manufactur, the longer they sit, they become dessimated, a manufacturing plant not in motion is a slow chinese water torture of destruction. How painful is that, brand spanking new plant, that grows weeds around it everyday.

3. Fed collusions, this that etc. I'll say it one more time in a KISS way. To think that the folks at the top cannot be totally stupid is not realistic.

OVERSIGHT OVERSIGHT OVERSIGH

Example in 04 it became apparent to states they had housing predatory lending problems, they wanted to enact laws locally, the federal government said, no no no, that is our job, go away, and the states did, and the fed government focused on fighting a war, while the bubble grew. Anyone with a napkin can figure this stuff out. If the people in charge do not lead, u get creative destruction, u know the cat away the mice will play, and the smart crooks will steal forever.

In summary, who has not worked for a total idiot. What do u do in that environment? U feel hopeless, helpless, do the minimum amount to get a pay check, and when the poop hits the fan hope it's not too bad.

U put an idiot in charge of the free world and what do u get?

A clus f.

Now the good side.

IMHO, there is not a country on earth now that is not in the same boat.

It's not that there are not good solutions to all of our problems, it is that the folks in charge spend there time fighting rather than solving stuff, and overseeing the right things.

IMHO, we can continue to fight or in the words of the great rodney king, "can't we all just get along"

simple, yet, profound, we are all in the same boat, if we focus on getting along, we can all row in the same direction and travel anywhere, otherwise, we will stay adrift at sea

izza optomotrist

[solidground]

Re: Great Depression again?

Is Cheney betting On
Economic Collapse?
By Mike Whitney
3-27-8

Wouldn't you like to know where Dick Cheney puts his money? Then you'd know whether his "deficits don't matter" claim is just baloney or not.



Well, as it turns out, Kiplinger Magazine ran an article based on Cheney's financial disclosure statement and, sure enough, found out that the VP is lying to the American people for the umpteenth time. Deficits do matter and Cheney has invested his money accordingly.



The article is called "Cheney's betting on bad news" and provides an account of where Cheney has socked away more than $25 million. While the figures may be estimates, the investments are not. According to Tom Blackburn of the Palm Beach Post, Cheney has invested heavily in "a fund that specializes in short-term municipal bonds, a tax-exempt money market fund and an inflation protected securities fund. The first two hold up if interest rates rise with inflation. The third is protected against inflation.

"

Cheney has dumped another (estimated) $10 to $25 million in a European bond fund which tells us that he is counting on a steadily weakening dollar. So, while working class Americans are loosing ground to inflation and rising energy costs, Darth Cheney will be enhancing his wealth in "Old Europe". As Blackburn sagely notes, "Not all 'bad news' is bad for everybody.

"

This should put to rest once and for all the foolish notion that the "Bush Economic Plan" is anything more than a scam aimed at looting the public till. The whole deal is intended to shift the nation's wealth from one class to another. It's also clear that Bush-Cheney couldn't have carried this off without the tacit approval of the thieves at the Federal Reserve who engineered the low-interest rate boondoggle to put the American people to sleep while they picked their pockets.



Reasonable people can dispute that Bush is "intentionally" skewering the dollar with his lavish tax cuts, but how does that explain Cheney's portfolio?

It doesn't. And, one thing we can say with metaphysical certainty is that the miserly Cheney would never plunk his money into an investment that wasn't a sure thing. If Cheney is counting on the dollar tanking and interest rates going up, then, by Gawd, that's what'll happen.



The Bush-Cheney team has racked up another $3 trillion in debt in just 6 years. The US national debt now stands at $8.4 trillion dollars while the trade deficit has ballooned to $800 billion nearly 7% of GDP.



This is lunacy. No country, however powerful, can maintain these staggering numbers. The country is in hock up to its neck and has to borrow $2.5 billion per day just to stay above water. Presently, the Fed is expanding the money supply and buying back its own treasuries to hide the hemorrhaging from the public. Its utter madness.



Last month the trade deficit climbed to $70 billion. More importantly, foreign central banks only purchased a meager $47 billion in treasuries to shore up our ravenous appetite for cheap junk from China.



Do the math! They're not investing in America anymore. They are decreasing their stockpiles of dollars. We're sinking fast and Cheney and his pals are manning the lifeboats while the public is diverted with gay marriage amendments and "American Celebrity".



The American manufacturing sector has been hollowed out by cutthroat corporations who've abandoned their country to make a fast-buck in China or Mexico. The $3 trillion housing (equity) bubble is quickly loosing air while the anemic dollar continues to sag. All the signs indicate that the economy is slowing at the same time that energy prices continue to rise.



This is the onset of stagflation; the dreaded combo of a slowing economy and inflation.



Did Americans really think they'd be spared the same type of economic colonization that has been applied throughout the developing world under the rubric of "neoliberalism"?

Well, think again. The American economy is barrel-rolling towards earth and there are only enough parachutes for Cheney and the gang.



The country has lost 3 million jobs from outsourcing since Bush took office; more than 200,000 of those are the high-paying, high-tech jobs that are the life's-blood of every economy.



Consider this from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) June edition of Foreign Affairs, the Bible of globalists and plutocrats:

"Between 2000 and 2003 alone, foreign firms built 60,000manufacturing plants in China. European chemical companies, Japanese carmakers, and US industrial conglomerates are all building factories in China to supply export markets around the world. Similarly, banks, insurance companies, professional-service firms, and IT companies are building R&D and service centers in India to support employees, customers, and production worldwide.

" ("The Globally integrated Enterprise" Samuel Palmisano, Foreign Affairs page 130)

"60,000manufacturing plants" in 3 years?!?

"Banks, insurance companies, professional-service firms, and IT companies"?

No job is safe. American elites and corporate tycoons are loading the boats and heading for foreign shores. The only thing they're leaving behind is the insurmountable debt that will be shackled to our children into perpetuity and the carefully arranged levers of a modern police-surveillance state.



Welcome to Bush's 21st Century gulag; third world luxury in a Guantanamo-type setting.



Take another look at Cheney's investment strategy; it tells the whole ugly story. Interest rates are going up, the middle class is going down, and the poor dollar is headed for the dumpster. The country is not simply teetering on the brink of financial collapse; it is being thrust headfirst by the blackguards in office and their satrapies at Federal Reserve.

[trip]

Re: Great Depression again?

debit is kind of funny, it costs him 35 cents no matter how much the charge one buck or 500

[horsepwr]

Re: Great Depression again?

70% put gas on credit? wow! I'm thinking they are counting all the pay-at-pump with debit/credit cards as credit sales. When really that comes right out of the bank. I know I always choose (credit) so I don't have to enter my pin number. It still comes right outa the bank account, but of coarse that's counted as a credit sale. I'm sure alot of people burn those gas cards up though. All the company gas cards...

[trip]

Re: Great Depression again?

Allright dj, i give u credit for seeing what folks are thinking, that is good.

Here is the main rub, what folks say and do are usually vastly different.

when coke and twinkie sales go down, ala, crappy snack food, folks disconnect there cable tv, i'll be the first to jump on your side of the discussion

i'd have to go back and check my books but it is like clockwork, every ten years u have financial disaster, every 30 years u have an economic disaster on a national level, all of these are well documented in a historical nature, and the funny thing is not once have they led to lemmings jumping off of cliffs, money does not disappear it get's transferred

in texas between 1985 and 2002 u could buy all the oil wells and acreage for peanuts, after the last boom 80-84 prices staid the same for 17 years, even went down adjusted for inflation even though costs went up, so no one wanted these assets

and now they are making record profits, they also have record costs cause they have no expereinced labor force, they are all retired or going to retire, and there was zero inventory on the books for materials rigs etc., cause 17 years of no demand

again, it is leverage leverage leverage, let's say u are a history buff on war, yup war, what is the no. 1 thing u know, war creates a commodities boom because you got that unique combo of fear, have to have the stuff now, and at any price.

so the hedge boys have guys on staff who know this ****, so they lever up and buy earl, as the price goes up since it is levered they make huge sums, which they lever up again, since the world economy is going well and the oil producing countries would prefer it up rather than down, they help by keeping levels tight, u have a war that shuts down supply and u get a really good tight squeeze, the longer it goes on the more folks who must own oil, have too have it

now of course the funny part, no one has yet to go to a gas pump and had too wait in line

when everyone who owns it is making mulah no one wants it to come down and will do anything for it too come down, and one day it most likely will, who knows when though

my local gas station, who i'm friends with the owner makes a nickel a gallon, visa makes a dime, go figure, oh 70% of folks use a credit card to buy gas

[trip]

Re: Great Depression again?

Again..................

They took the internet bubble money, they levered it up and lent it back with arms, 100% loans, 120% loans, 40 yr. mortages, etc.

And the walls came tumbling in.

Now who buys mortgage backed securities, you're local pension fund, state, municipality etc., cause they are the safest. Now, that they got hoodwinked they aint buying a pennies worth.

Thus, there is zero, read again, zero demand for mortgage paper unless they have a gold seal of approval.

It's the leveraged, deriavative boys who will die a thousand slow deaths.

Google, carlyle group, and jefferson city alabama, this is the idiocy that has been going on, now that the bank who owns the loans are on the brink they are calling in all the loans, and when u don't have the margin, you get sold out in a heart beat.

Carlyle, smart guys, raised 600 million, they levered it up 30 times, yup, they had borrowed 20 billion at 4%, bought mortage paper at 6% and pocketed the spread, which means they owed 1 billion a year in interest and earned 1.2 billion in interest on mortgages, off of 600 mil invest that's an un***ly yearly return all due to leverage. Now, how much safer could a mortgage be, we have a 50 year history, so, by signing some papers raising some moeny these guys were making bucko bucks, and now that foreclosures are wracking up, they are screwed, because the 20 billion in mortgages are only worth 15 billion, that means, they pay a billion in interest and collect 900 million , un oh, they are losing 10 million a month on a shell company, the bank knows these guys will not poney up the money they will cut bait and run, so bank foreclosuses and sells the paper so they don't end up holding the bag.

Money does not disappear, ill gotten gains, are now becoming, once in a life time loses, i guess easy come easy go.

jeffeson city, ie, birmingham, buys derivatives, way over leveraged to save a few pennies and the worst thing happens and now they are on the hook for 200 million, uh oh, some one should be hung on the town square for approving this crap.

IMHO, the more i watch congresional hearings the more it is obvious, 80% of these guys have no better clue about stuff than the local guy and the local bar, who at least knows he don't know much.

[pigmeat]

Re: Great Depression again?

what about all the boating and camping and atv riding? how do you explain that...and vacations..

[horsepwr]

Re: Great Depression again?

I understand what a recession is. Dj you gotta read the whole links to get the whole picture. We might be in a little recession in this quarter. That's as far as your links go. I even stated way back on page 3 or somewhere that we have areas of recession whcih I overstated that alittle obviously. Are you getting it now buddy? We had a much worse time in 1980-'81. That was a recession.

We might have a little recession on our hands this quarter<---is a huge difference than a "great depression" That's all I've been telling you. Your own links back me up.
(great depression)...(recession)...not at all one in the same.

Re: Great Depression again?

have you tried to book a vacation lately?all the big resorts are booked 6 months out..doesnt sound like a depression to me...certain industries are hurting others are not...my mom works in medical field...she just got a7% cost of living pay raise...my dad is a farmer (alfalfa)...he has made more money this last 2 years than ever in his life...(i mean lotttts of $$$)There are still lines at home depot...lines at the atv/motorcycle dealers, the lakes are impossible to get your boat on any more...too many boats...try and go camping...not a spot on the mountain....all of this is activity done by middle class people...unnecessary spending...expensive hobbies....i dont think this would be the norm if we were in bad shape like you say

In your world: Only 1 boat at the lake..everyone either couldnt make the payment and their boat was repod, or they cant afford the gas to pull it to the lake, and gas for the boat...only the one rich guy in town at the lake..Home depot:...nobody there...all the inventory on clearance sale...people have no money to install that $5000 vinyl fence...or that fancy chandeloir their wife has been wanting..

I'm speachless Pigmeat. Maybe your area is different than the rest of the country. One of my friend is a manager at Lowes and says they had to cut everyones hours and let people go since there is a lack of business.

Everyone is running mega specials now to try and stimulate new business. I ask companies everywhere I go if the economy has hurt them at all, and 99.99% of them have said it absolutely devastated them. I think I've heard one person say they were unaffected.

I'm wondering if certain areas are slammed harder than others.

I know Florida is superbad, as is Maryland & Buffalo NY. I've got family and friends in all of them, plus I visit those areas often. When I was in Maryland this past month I was checking the jobs to see how many openings there were......they only had 1 page for the whole job section! Florida atleast has like 4 pages. That was nuts! The majority seems to be medical jobs.

Oh yea, btw medical is always unaffected too Pigmeat. People always need to get medical care regardless of the economy. I forgot to add that one in my unaffected group. My bad.

Re: Great Depression again?

Being that you actually took the time to read this time Horse I will respond to that post.

Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) - Cite This Source - Share This
re&#183;ces&#183;sion1 /rɪˈsɛʃən/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[ri-sesh-uhn] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun 1. the act of receding or withdrawing.
2. a receding part of a wall, building, etc.
3. a withdrawing procession, as at the end of a religious service.
4. Economics. a period of an economic contraction, sometimes limited in scope or duration. Compare depression (def. 7).

"Many economists fear that the country is teetering on the edge of a recession or is in one already."...

"Fears are growing that the country is teetering on the edge of a recession, if one has not already begun."...

"It sounds like the recession bell is ringing for the U.S. economy, although it is still faint," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial...

"The elimination of 63,000 jobs in February was the most since March 2003 and marked the second month in a row of job losses. The last time the economy suffered two consecutive months of job losses was in May and June 2003,"...

Are you understanding what Recession means? I bolded what apparentely you were missing, and I even included a direct excerpt from dictionary.com with it also saying COMPARE TO DEPRESSION! IT'S ONE IN THE SAME THING!

[pigmeat]

Re: Great Depression again?

have you tried to book a vacation lately?all the big resorts are booked 6 months out..doesnt sound like a depression to me...certain industries are hurting others are not...my mom works in medical field...she just got a7&#37; cost of living pay raise...my dad is a farmer (alfalfa)...he has made more money this last 2 years than ever in his life...(i mean lotttts of $$$)There are still lines at home depot...lines at the atv/motorcycle dealers, the lakes are impossible to get your boat on any more...too many boats...try and go camping...not a spot on the mountain....all of this is activity done by middle class people...unnecessary spending...expensive hobbies....i dont think this would be the norm if we were in bad shape like you say

In your world: Only 1 boat at the lake..everyone either couldnt make the payment and their boat was repod, or they cant afford the gas to pull it to the lake, and gas for the boat...only the one rich guy in town at the lake..Home depot:...nobody there...all the inventory on clearance sale...people have no money to install that $5000 vinyl fence...or that fancy chandeloir their wife has been wanting..

[horsepwr]

Re: Great Depression again?

[B][SIZE="4"]
Then finally here's links I provided that you clearly didn't read.....or maybe you did and again lacked the ability to comprehend what you just read!

1. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080305/...fi/fed_economy

"Many economists fear that the country is teetering on the edge of a recession or is in one already."...

Thanks for backing me up

2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...01053.html?g=1

"This time, two-thirds of the Fed's districts described a softening or weakening in the pace of business activity, and the others all referred to subdued, slow, or modest growth."...

Again. far from a great depression. It even notes economic growth! This article also steers clear of the (recession) label.

3. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080307/fed_credit_crisis.html

"Fears are growing that the country is teetering on the edge of a recession, if one has not already begun."...

sound familiar?

4. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080307/economy.html

"It sounds like the recession bell is ringing for the U.S. economy, although it is still faint," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial...

"The elimination of 63,000 jobs in February was the most since March 2003 and marked the second month in a row of job losses. The last time the economy suffered two consecutive months of job losses was in May and June 2003,"...

So we had a recession in 2003?

And here's a new one....

5. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080307/...h/bush_economy

"I'm still not saying that there's a recession," Lazear said. "We are going to have a weak growth quarter, and whether you call that a recession or not is something that we won't know for many months."...

Exactly. We'll know in a few months if you could refer to this quarter as a little recession or not.

Did you read these links dj? None of them even go so far as to categorize the current economy as recession. Every link suggests "teetering on the edge of recession" in areas of the economy... so I went to far. I actually used the term (recession) to describe sections of the economic situation.

Thanks for the links. I'm scraping you outa the treads of my shoes now.

Re: Great Depression again?

lets have fun debating and arguing guys, but try and play a little nicer..please
Dj, i am not arguing that areas of the economy are bad....i am arguing the fact that you say it is another great depression...
The economy isnt all bad...depends on your field of work. If you work in the energy industries, you ar kicking a s s! All of them are recording record profits...hell i make more money each year...alot more money each year...intrest rates dont effect me, as i have good credit, and already locked in on a 4.5% homemortgage......as a matteof fact my 401k and ira have all continued making me money...i made alot of money last quarter on 401k....over $100,000 last quarter on it...why, because alot of my investments are in energy stocks that skyrocket over the last couple years.
Gas prices arent hurting me much either...i use 2 tanks of fuel a week...the diffrence it costs me frm being $2.70 a gallon and $3.20 a gallon costs me about $70 a month...or $2.50 a day...hardly going to drive me into bankruptcy....

See I actually agree with what you're saying to a degree. I believe in any depression there will always be those certain factions that come out on top. Being that the energy industry is the cause of our economies collapse in my opinion, of course they are making record profits. Everyone in that industry is making money hand over fist, while the rest of the industries are biting the bullet. They are gouging people at the pump, and they know it. They are making record profits for a reason.

Gas prices won't effect you only depending on where you live. The average citizen lives 30-45 minutes from work, or atleast so they say according to most studies.

It costs me $21 everytime I take a round trip from my house to the Tampa/Clearwater area (32 miles away from me). It used to cost me like $10! That's a big difference across 5 days a week. That's an additional $55 a week / $220 a month. Now spread that loss across a couple since two people in a marriage drive to two seperate places, and you have a $440 loss a month in household income. Now couple that with the fact I spend an additional $150 a week in groceries since the prices have soared there too thanks to ethanol / and delivery costs going out of control, plus add an additional $80 to my energy bill. That's $670 gone because of f'n gas prices.

Now to top it off material costs are much higher thanks to the fact that again energy costs are up, so it costs more to make materials. Then they have to deliver the materials to a distribution warehouse which they have to charge nearly double for now that gas/diesel prices are insane. Those two things together spell disaster not only for the construction industry, but for any industry.

I'm glad you made out on your 401k. That's good to hear some people are making out. Not everyone is so fortunate though. Just read the paper, blogs, news whatever and you'll see the majority have lost a boatload in this economy. My sister-in-law is one of them. She owns 20+ homes, and has a net worth in the millions. She said she lost alot in the stock market, and she's not dumb by any means. She's incredibely smart.

I'm not saying because I know one person that lost alot in the stock market, that, that is why we are in a depression. I'm giving one example of someone close I know. If you read or look around, or even speak to the majority of the people on the streets they will have the same story. I ask people everywhere I go. Call me nosey, but I always get political with people in public places. I like to hear peoples thoughts (atleast those that are rational, haha). It's amazing how people of all ages are effected by this market.

I always think if something goes wrong, that I must be doing something wrong. So I research it. I'll read into it, watch videos, and then start asking strangers questions that will give me info into whether I'm alone or not. Once I've got enough info obviously I can compile a pretty good synopsis of what the issue is.

Which is why I deemed it a great depression yet again. It's hurting people across the board (of course minus the cause ///energy industry///). Prices are going up, wages are not. Costs are getting expensive, people have less to spend. Jobs are being lost, not created. Companies are outsourcing work to other countries.....this is not a good time at all.

[pigmeat]

Re: Great Depression again?

lets have fun debating and arguing guys, but try and play a little nicer..please
Dj, i am not arguing that areas of the economy are bad....i am arguing the fact that you say it is another great depression...
The economy isnt all bad...depends on your field of work. If you work in the energy industries, you ar kicking a s s! All of them are recording record profits...hell i make more money each year...alot more money each year...intrest rates dont effect me, as i have good credit, and already locked in on a 4.5&#37; homemortgage......as a matteof fact my 401k and ira have all continued making me money...i made alot of money last quarter on 401k....over $100,000 last quarter on it...why, because alot of my investments are in energy stocks that skyrocket over the last couple years.
Gas prices arent hurting me much either...i use 2 tanks of fuel a week...the diffrence it costs me frm being $2.70 a gallon and $3.20 a gallon costs me about $70 a month...or $2.50 a day...hardly going to drive me into bankruptcy....