Gallup: No Increase in Percentage of New Voters From 2004

[FUZO]

Gallup: No Increase in Percentage of New Voters From 2004

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So much for the myth that the Obamessiah has inspired legions of first-time voters. Apparently he has inspired about the same amount as John Kerry did in 2004, or 13% of the registered voters.




Quote:
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup finds 13% of registered voters saying they will vote for president for the first time in 2008. That matches the figure Gallup found in its final 2004 pre-election poll.




Quote:
Despite much discussion of the possibility of large numbers of new voters in 2008, the percentage of "first time" voters in Gallup polling this election cycle is no higher than it was at approximately the same time in 2004.

The estimate of first-time voters is slightly lower, 11%, using Gallup's expanded likely voter model. Under this model, Americans who are registered to vote, who say they plan to vote, who indicate they have given "quite a lot" of thought to the election, and who rate their chances of voting as a "9" or "10" on a 10-point scale are deemed likely to vote. Gallup's traditional likely voter model takes into account past voting behavior as well as current voting intentions, but because it adjusts for voters who were too young to vote in past elections, it still estimates that 8% of likely voters will be voting for the first time.


Oh, and about the infamous YOUTH VOTE?

McCain's winning it, according to the IBD poll:

18-24 years old

McCain (49%)
Obama (41%)
Not sure (10%)

[snickers1]

Re: Gallup: No Increase in Percentage of New Voters From 2004

Young Voters Favor Obama, but How Many Will Vote?


from gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- Although Barack Obama leads John McCain by almost 30 percentage points among 18- to 29-year-old registered voters, these younger voters are still less likely than older voters to report being registered to vote, paying attention to the election, or planning to vote this year.

Obama is clearly the favored candidate among young voters, while Obama and McCain are much more competitive among the older age groups.



not saying the ones you quoted are wrong and mine are right just pointing what you and all of us have been saying polls constantly contradict and are just inaccurate.... watch up until the election these numbers will go back and forth.... bottom line the night of election we will see a very different story then what these polls are saying and you know that...hence the reason you keep talking about the 2000 and 2004 elections right?