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EVERYONE WHO HAS LEAD IN THE GALLUP POLL AT THE END OF JULY HAS LOST THE PRESDENTIAL EXCEPT 1 I BELEIVE
With Barack Obama leading John McCain by no more than six percentage points in Gallup's early July polling, the 2008 race currently fits best into the "competitive" category. Given that assumption, Gallup's election trends from a comparable point in previous presidential election years offer no strong indication of whether Obama or McCain is headed for victory in November.
(In 1976, Jimmy Carter, who won that election, was ahead by 33 points in mid-July, but the race narrowed significantly by Election Day and he won by only two points. Thus, for the purposes of this analysis, the 1976 race is classified as competitive.)
Barack Obama has consistently led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for the past month, but by an average of only three points among registered voters. His largest lead since July 1 has been six points, although in the latest Gallup report, based on interviews conducted July 3 and July 5-6, it is just four points, 47% to 43%. (For the full Gallup Poll Daily interactive trend since March,
History provides no clear indication of the relationship between this narrow margin and the eventual outcome in November. The pattern that occurred in several presidential years suggests that the convention period could be crucial for either cementing Obama's slight advantage or establishing McCain as the new front-runner. This year's Democratic convention will be held in Denver from Aug. 25-28, followed by the Republican convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul from Sept. 1-4. If neither convention succeeds in transforming the election, the race could very well remain close right through the home stretch.
With Barack Obama leading John McCain by no more than six percentage points in Gallup's early July polling, the 2008 race currently fits best into the "competitive" category. Given that assumption, Gallup's election trends from a comparable point in previous presidential election years offer no strong indication of whether Obama or McCain is headed for victory in November.
(In 1976, Jimmy Carter, who won that election, was ahead by 33 points in mid-July, but the race narrowed significantly by Election Day and he won by only two points. Thus, for the purposes of this analysis, the 1976 race is classified as competitive.)
Barack Obama has consistently led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for the past month, but by an average of only three points among registered voters. His largest lead since July 1 has been six points, although in the latest Gallup report, based on interviews conducted July 3 and July 5-6, it is just four points, 47% to 43%. (For the full Gallup Poll Daily interactive trend since March,
History provides no clear indication of the relationship between this narrow margin and the eventual outcome in November. The pattern that occurred in several presidential years suggests that the convention period could be crucial for either cementing Obama's slight advantage or establishing McCain as the new front-runner. This year's Democratic convention will be held in Denver from Aug. 25-28, followed by the Republican convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul from Sept. 1-4. If neither convention succeeds in transforming the election, the race could very well remain close right through the home stretch.
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