Iran and show me da money

[trip]

Speculation is Observation

Well, it seems Iran has a few problems, lol, with the bush embargo there oil companies cannot get goods and services, thus, they are behind in what they can produce and make money on.

Now, add that too the fact over the last six months, there costs of servicing those well has gone up 30%.

I always say.................follow da money.

So, now we have a hint as too why we're starting too talk, lol, money talks, and there microsoft excell spreadsheets show every day how much money they coulda made if they played nice versus naughty.

Now, the key is it works in reverse much worse, as oil goes down, there income goes down, yet, costs will stay high.

So, they missed out on the upside, and will now not make as much on da downside cause of cost imbalance.

As Dr. Phil would say, Now, how is that strategy working for ya.

Stop it. Just stop it.

lol

humanity everywhere is da same, human emotions rule, fear and greed, fear and greed, which way did they go which way did they go

[firstenrgy]

Re: Iran and show me da money

What? Come on trip. You've posted many insightful comments but this is nonsense. Where were the bush conspiracy theorists when oil went under $10 a barrel in 1986. We heard crickets. There is no oil conspiracy... 85 million barrels a day produced 87 million in demand. Hmmmm, what would economics 101 tell you. RISING PRICES!
If this is such a certainty to you, I hope you are long oil futures. Buy em up my friend. At least you can use it as toilet paper when they expire.

[daved150]

Re: Iran and show me da money

....you repeated something from Dr. Phil??!!...dude....wow

[trip]

Re: Iran and show me da money

fwiw, i've shorting oil related stocks for two weeks now all the charts are breaking down

when oil went to ten bucks

well, let's see ussr supporting a war with oil money at 20 bucks a barrell, all of a sudden saudi's open the pumps, oil goes to ten, two years later ussr is bankrupt

these are all just observations

[daved150]

Re: Iran and show me da money

still cant get past that....Dr. Phil???

[firstenrgy]

Re: Iran and show me da money

I can't make the war/comodities argument with you because the numbers are the numbers. I just don't believe people are behind it being the puppet masters pulling the strings.

[trip]

Re: Iran and show me da money

i don't believe there are pupper masters either

just smart folks who know market history, and have bukko bucks

the only way price goes up is by more and more buyers at a higher price, which means it takes more and more money

it's simple war destroys, too win u need commodities and money and lot's of it

this time, not only did u get a war, u got cheap money from al baby, which they borrowed and levered up more

and u had global growth, real global growth at 3% in 04-4% in 05-5% in 06

it probably would have been a good money maker in regular times, these guys got some luck thrown there way, the global growth and katrina

and let's not forget 24-7 news channels instant information

we had alos been filling up the petroleum reserver for the last two year and july 1st that what stopped


i caught a historian on tv the other night and he was talking about oil

he said, when we went off gold in 73 and our currency was super strong, the middle east said, hey, if you buy are oiil we will turn around and buy your treasuries, and thus began a relationship that was so so before and like any bizness, all parties were happy both got what they wanted

and global growth caught up with them

nations countries act no different than individuals

who doesnt'have a friend been losing weight for 20years and finally one day can't take it any more and boom a year later greatest shape ever

people change at max pain

[firstenrgy]

Re: Iran and show me da money

Trip, trippin....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=305vRNoofr8

[trip]

Re: Iran and show me da money

fe,

i'm passionate about knowledge, so i'm always wiling too listen, my mind can be changed, and above all i question myself alot

i do it in a simple way

here is what i'm hearing u say over and over and over, u r adamanant about it

87 mbdemand, 85 mdsupply

now, my gut reaction is if that is true, we'd have major domo problems, so i asked myself would we

i worked out the math

if ur numbers are correct

we'd have a 60 million barrell per month deficit, less than one days supply

so we're running short 3/4's of a day every month

i was like hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

he could be right, we could run on those numbers fine without great disruptions, just a lot of mish-mash prloblems

so, if two million defict causes prices to rise very high, equal supply demand, or a small surplus will do what????

now, if we use 25 barrels a year, 15 is used by countries like europe/japan etc. and emerging 2-4

for life styles to rise in emergin economies, they will need more, and we will need too scale back

imho, we're in The Great Age of Efficiency

my guess is it is a decade of change

good stuff, is 3rd world uses newest tech stuff most efficient, the example cell phones, most 3rd world countries did not have phones, now 75% of em do, yet, they are all cells, most efficient cost analysis to do job

for us since we have money for long term investments we will do different stuff, solar wind, which is still not cost effective on a standard biz roi, yet, is on a cost S curve similar to pc's in 85, ie, total costs are coming down

last week i ran the numbers on the cost of solarizing a 2k square foot home, right now, average is by my best guess, 40k total install to cut electric use 40%

i was actually amazed to find out wind power for the home, is half the price for, u can install a home windmill for 15k, yet u only get 30% cut in electric

anyways i worked the numbers my guess was within a decade 20k install is very easily do-able

right now bottlenecks are trained labor force, panel costs, and converter costs

yet once the two parts of the equation which is equipment hits mass manufacturing, costs on those start too come down quickly, ala, first pc's 5k now similar one 1k

i didn't project a 5 too 1 come down in price yet, it will be large, at least half

all's i'm saying is 90% of time i do not throw around information recklessly, ten percent of the time i'm either wrong, with incorrect facts assumptions, or plain assed being dumb, yet, i do love the process of discovery

[firstenrgy]

Re: Iran and show me da money

I don't agree with everthing but well spoken.

[trip]

Re: Iran and show me da money

that's cool, what do u think i'm missing and why

[firstenrgy]

Re: Iran and show me da money

Wind is 2-6 times the cost of coal or oil depending on where the wind generator is placed. This is at $130 a barrel oil. You know the numbers... I'm wasting my time typing... your playing with me.

[trip]

Re: Iran and show me da money

i'm going by a simple search thru google in my area on solar energy installations

and what u can buy today right now and how much it costs

solar panels for a home about 20k, a windmill for 10k

[firstenrgy]

Re: Iran and show me da money

10k windmill? Yeah, for a christmas light bulb or to run your electric razor. Windmills now can be up to 400 feet high. All that produce any decent amount of eelctricity are big and ugly!

[trip]

Re: Iran and show me da money

i lived near the first windmill farm in texas over 20 years ago, and since i ran a construction company i know about size

so today i'm thinking, hmmmmm, i wonder if there are solar shingles

so i clicked on google, and yes there are, with thin film solar they now have shingles that match existing shingles where they are essentially similar in style

i think we're on two different roads

i'm curious as too what the roi, sunk costs, and tehcnology available for a 2k square foot home that costs about 3k a year in electical costs

don't forget in 1860 railroads were controversial, and as dr. phil would say, how is that working out, lol

150 years later still doing it

oil enabled cars, and national raod system free for all in the '50's

imho, the KISS solution to it all are elctric cars............and electricity generated by the sun............it has a positive feedback loop, and since the sun has zero costs and is pretty consistent

we still have battery issues for electic cars, yet, i always go by we sent a man too the moon, so i'm positive we can do mfg a great battery for electic cars, and i'm well aware we've been trying for 30 years, yet, u have too remember the first cell phones were concieved in 1950, first ones hit the mkt in 85 the big brick ones like gordon geeko in wall street, ten years later motorola came out with the flip phone, 3years later nokia the little bitty one that fit in your palm which is now a standard size for the most part

and we all know what have happened too cell phones after 95

i'm pro humans, one word describes humanity, progress, the trend is my friend, and i'll follow that till it don't work no moh