About this economy?

[Dzone]

what have You all observed the last couple months with the economy and food and gas prices skyrocketing? Im trying not to be a pessimist, hopingthings will get better...but talked to afriend who manages a whole foods supermarket and she says she cant believe how much shoplifting has surged in the past few months. Said adults even have their kids stealing. sad. Have known people that cant work cuz they cant afford transportation.Seems to be a rash of bank holdups and muggings every night on the news... I heard that Ed Mcmahon has defaulted on his beverly hills mansion mortgage with countrywide for $4.8 million. there has been a surge of arson cases in my city, peeps burning down the house for insurance $$$. what is happening where you all live? You see more crime? are things getting better or worse?

[T-Man007]

Re: About this economy?

Yeah, I read about those arson deals. I went to a house last week and the home behind them was burned down....conveniently when no one was home. They are still investigating that one from what I hear.

As for me, the appraisal business has gotten more cut throat lately. 3/4 of the clients I had just one year ago are gone or are using someone that will lie to get them the value they need to make the deal work. Then, when these banks foreclose they are suprised to find out that the home wasn't really worth what they thought. But, some how, these guys are still in business. I know one guy that has been turned into the state for fraudulent stuff twice my a guy I know and he is still out there appraising homes. The last I heard he is slammed. It just pisses me off how the dishonest people are raking in the dough and I'm having to venture out into other valuation services to make up for the loss. I could go out and market myself but I know how it works.....they only send you the stuff their other guy said he can't get the value on. After you expain what a more realistic value is or do the assignment and come in less than what they wanted.....you are off the list.

One good thing about my job is I can take a few classes and branch out into areas with less competition. There are not many appraisers specializing in Relocation appraisals. Well, let me reprahse that, there are not that many on the approved list. So, that's something I could do. But, some people don't have that option, some people are just getting a raw deal right now. The dude across the street is riding his bicycle to and from work so they can spend the gas money to get groceries.

I think the gas prices are causing other prices to get higher which is ultimately making things worse. Oil needs to get back below $100 a barrel and that will take some pressure off of some of these companies. Everything you buy had to be transported, so everything you buy is going to get slightly more expensive. Just think about how many times some items are transported before they reach their final destination. That's a little bitty mark up each time.

As for crime, it's still the same here. We have pretty low crime but I will be interested in seeing the stats at the end of the year.

[trip]

Re: About this economy?

i'm older so i've been thru down turns in the economy, they suck, they really suck, and since 80% of folks do not plan or budget they get caught short


fwiw, i've never ever had a credit card, never ever borrowed money except for one house and one car 25 years ago

i've always had money in the bank to live a long time if bad stuff happens, set backs

it is very hard too see yet most business's, 80% of them that made it thru the dot bomb are very flush financially and well capitalized with great balance sheets

now, banks that dealt it crappy loans are toast, airlines, they are in eternal hell

other than that it's not too bad long term

short term, changes are happening, most don't expect them

i'll give you an example, my baby, my truck was stolen in 04, i picked up a used honda until i found another one, i'm still driving it, gas prices kept on going up, and since i don't drive alot, yet, love a beautiful truck, i kept on saying let's wait, so, in a certain way i got lucky


the main thing is most folks don't realize, we have not had bad inflation in 25 years, it's upon us now, it probably will last another few years until things get worked out

what really makes it ten times worse is war, war causes huge piles of money to jump into commodities, because to wage war you have too have em, it just so happen that this time it intersected with global growth and u got prices that have ramped way way way high

whereas high prices in the short term are bad, in the long term it gets folks too change habits

pain causes change

and if you can say one thing about human kind, it is progress, change, lumpy at times yet it's always happenieng

a decade from now we will say we have it great and things are great

a decade ago what i am doing now, was pretty much unthinkable for majority of the world, now it is standard

[Xadrenaline]

Re: About this economy?

All of you make excellent points. In my area, I gage where the economy is goin g by what cars are for sale in the local Albertson parking lot. I know this sounds silly, but before the housing slump came and everyone was still saying that the housing market was good.. I knew it was going down. The small city I live next to is a very affluent area. People bought there because of that, and they really couldn't afford it. Then, to live there you must drive a nice car.. So, people bought these huge houses and pulled a 2nd out to buy the car... Hence.. the cars for sale in the Albertson parking lot..
I bought my house putting so much down that if something happened to me, I could go to work in a minial job and still be able to afford the life I like.. Just less Starbucks. I too owe nothing on cars.. All paid for.
I believe that people need to wake up and quit trying to keep up with the Jones'. That is why we are in such a huge predicament now... My 2cc's

[Deno]

Re: About this economy?

I'm about to be 29 and I can't remember hard times like we are having today. So that tells you everything.

[dixiechick]

Re: About this economy?

Dzone, I'm like you. I try not to be pessimistic. I keep hoping that once the elections are over and the new president is in office the economy will get better.

Truthfully, I think we are in for more bad. This is a credit crisis that isn't going away until people start paying down their credit. I blame the banks and financial institutes for most of this. Most people want to blame Bush, but he did make loans to people who couldn't afford it. Mortgage companies offer loans called "arms" to people knowing **** well that the interest rates were going up. The loans have variable interest rates instead of fix which means after a certain period they increase the rates every year until the loan is up or paid off. I don't understand for the life of me why someone would agree to a loan like this especially when interest rates over the past years were so good.

Now we have people who can't afford their house payments. The mortgage companies also sold home owners on home equity lines. I'm sure you've seen the reports on how many credit cards most people own and how much they have on the credit cards. Ok.... 2nd mortgages, auto loans, some have student loans as well and on average $8,000 worth of credit card payments topped with increase gas prices and everything going up. This was just building up until it all came crashing down.

It's not going to get any better, because reports are saying the use of credit cards have increased 15% in a year. HELLO! People are just getting further in debt. Instead of paying it off. They are charging more. NO... things aren't gong to get better. If things keeping going like this, then it will only get worse.

Ok... this subject just pisses me off because I'm am one of the few people who have spent my life living within my means. I only use one credit card and it gets paid off at the end of each month. I have lived by one rule. If I don't have the money to pay cash for it, then I don't buy it. I save up the first and buy it once I have enough... with a few excepts that have been out of my control. IMO that's what credit cards are for... emergencies situations.

Now I'm caught in this whole credit mess... I got married last year and moved in with my husband, so my house is for sale. Naturally it's not selling and it's been on the market for a year and half. Now our accountants are telling us that if it doesn't sell by the end of the year. When it does sell, we'll have to pay capital gains tax. To avoid the tax we have to live there for a year!

[daved150]

Re: About this economy?

my life is mortgaged!! i have loans on loans...i've always done it like that, and prob. always will. my credit is still perfect (mid 700's) and i'm trying to keep it that way....but, although i'm almost as old as some of you (not so much fuzo or o2), and i do remember the down turn in the mid 80's, i didnt have as much on the line then as i do now. just gotta dig in, keep turning and thank the lord for the help of my friends and family.

[3Vandoo]

Re: About this economy?

guys, it is a cycle, this happens

saw it basic theory mba class, now i see it in my 3rd cycle courses.

it will come back for a very better better economics for atleast 25-30 years with significant growth.

set back always bring good in the market,

you will see some bitter months until fall then watch the sky rocket!

[daved150]

Re: About this economy?

guys, it is a cycle, this happens

saw it basic theory mba class, now i see it in my 3rd cycle courses.

it will come back for a very better better economics for atleast 25-30 years with significant growth.

set back always bring good in the market,

you will see some bitter months until fall then watch the sky rocket!

hey...uuuummmm....anyway you can move that up to mid summer or so? like, how about around aug.? that'd be great....

[Klash]

Re: About this economy?

hey...uuuummmm....anyway you can move that up to mid summer or so? like, how about around aug.? that'd be great....

LOL!!!

[3Vandoo]

Re: About this economy?

guys, it is a cycle, this happens

saw it basic theory mba class, now i see it in my 3rd cycle courses.

it will come back for a very better better economics for atleast 25-30 years with significant growth.

set back always bring good in the market,

you will see some bitter months until 2nd of august 08, 5am then watch the sky rocket!

for dave

[daved150]

Re: About this economy?

for dave

MY MAN VANDOO!!!!!! i dont care if you dont like the wings becouse they kick the shyt out of your canadian teams ass, i still love ya!!! your my boy!!!!

[firstenrgy]

Re: About this economy?

No doubt, this economy has issues before it. Is currently a recession? NO! Is it the worst economy in a ba-zillion years... NO! We have had a period of easy credit where Real Estate ran crazy during the drunken lending standards of the banks. Yes, people pissed away this equity and are going to pull back on spending... This why we DO NOT need a President who will raise taxes and stranlgle the economy via Jimmy Carter... NOTE... Do you realize the top tax bracket was 70% during the Carter era. Look it up.

[daved150]

Re: About this economy?

to answer your question, yes crime has been on the rise here too. it's always big in detroit, but the out lying, little quiet town are picking up alot. i live out in the stick and b&e's and even home invasions have been on the rise!!!

[bowbow]

Re: About this economy?

You haven't seen anything yet when it it comes to food prices. This countrys corn belt can't even get a crop planted. If they do it's under water. With rising oil prices and food shortages it's going to get ugly. real ugly.
Have a nice day.