MSM HISTORY LESSON: CNN predicted Kerry win Nov. 1st 2004

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People, please stop paying attention to the MSM pundit projections and predictions.


Quote:
CNN, November, 1st 2004

Study predicts Kerry win based on Dow Jones Industrials - Nov. 1st, 2004



Study says if the Dow drops more than 0.5% in the month before the election, incumbents lose.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If the historical performance of the Dow Jones industrial average is any guide, John Kerry will be the 44th president of the United States.

According to a recent study by the Hirsch Organization, publishers of the Stock Trader's Almanac, if the Dow loses more than 0.5 percent of its value in the month of October before Election Day, then an incumbent president is going to lose his job. The Dow fell 0.52 percent in October.

This predictor has been true without exception from 1904 to the present, according to Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac and president of the Hirsch Organization.

The 30-share Dow, the world's most widely watched stock market gauge, closed at 10,080.27 on Sept. 30 and at 10,027.47 Friday, the last trading day in October.

So what would it have taken for the indicator to point to a Bush win?

For the president to be assured of a win, the Dow would have to be at 10,413 or above at the end of October, Hirsch said. That's because incumbents usually win when the Dow rises in October, but this is especially so if the gain is 3.3 percent or more.

If the Dow is up for the month but the gain is less than 3.3 percent, that's good for the incumbent but not a sure thing. When the gain is at least 3.3 percent, however, the incumbent has always won, according to Hirsch.

Hirsch said there are other signs in the market's recent performance pointing to a Kerry victory.

His organization has also studied what happens to incumbents based on stock market performance from the end of the most recent political convention -- this year, the Republican National Convention in New York -- until the election.

The Dow closed on Sept. 2 at 10,260.20 after the RNC wound down. For President Bush to win, the Dow would have to rise at least 260 points or so from current levels, bringing it back into positive territory, according to this indicator.

This post-convention indicator has correctly predicted presidential elections since 1900, said Hirsch, with two notable exceptions.

The first one occurred in 1956, when Dwight Eisenhower won his second term. That year, the Dow lost 2.5 percent between the end of the last convention on Aug. 24 and Election Day.

But the Soviet army rolled its tanks into Hungary that October, making the return of an incumbent who had been a five-star general in World War II particularly appealing.

The post-convention indicator was undone again in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won his second term in office. That year, the Dow lost 0.6 percent from the day after the convention until the election, when it closed at 1,229.24 on the eve of Reagan's landslide.

"But that was just a minor correction on the heels of a huge bull market. The market's former success seemed to be more of an indicator that year," said Hirsch.




Quote:
NBC’s Pollster Chuck Todd in 2004-"A Kerry Landslide”

"2004 could be a decisive victory for Kerry. The reason to think so is historical. Elections that feature a sitting president tend to be referendums on the incumbent--and in recent elections, the incumbent has either won or lost by large electoral margins. If you look at key indicators beyond the neck-and-neck support for the two candidates in the polls--such as high turnout in the early Democratic primaries and the likelihood of a high turnout in November--it seems improbable that Bush will win big. More likely, it’s going to be Kerry in a rout.”


Quote:

DAILY KOS, October 31st, 2004

Kerry Will Win Big

It's still possible that Bush could pull it off, and it's even more possible that Bush could again win the Presidency through litigation. But the odds are getting more lopsided in favor of at least a solid Kerry win, with improving odds of a Kerry landslide.

I've been open to the possibility of a Kerry landslide since April. Nothing since then has dissuaded me of that possibility. The race, as far as we can tell, has the appearance of being close, but with indications of great early voting numbers coming out of places like Iowa and inspiring stories about people determined to have their votes counted in Florida, the early, admittedly highly anecdotal evidence points to good things. Add the news from Ohio, the tightening polls in places like Arkansas and Nevada, the fact that Kerry is polling better than Gore did on the verge of the election, and that the Dems stand to gain much more from the intensified GOTV efforts, relatively, than should the Republicans, and there is much to suggest that Kerry should do extremely well on Tuesday.

So, I decided to do something I almost never do: make a prediction. Kerry will win big--big as in over 5% (which is big in terms of the last several Presidential races), and big as in 311 or more electoral votes.

This isn't over, and as I clearly stated in April, my confidence in our chances is by no means an excuse for anybody to let up for even 5 seconds. Follow through on the GOTV work, continue to talk to your friends and neighbors, and do whatever we need to do to elect Dems up and down the ballot. But do it with confidence, because we're on the verge of a momentous and deeply satisfying victory.



MORE PREDICTIONS:

Tucker Carlson (CNN) - Kerry 278, Bush 260
prediction made October 31 , added October 31

Electoral Vote (based on compositing polls) - Kerry 298, Bush 231
prediction made October 31, added October 31.

VOTE ON TUES!