WASHINGTON - President Bush embarks Monday on an eight-day Asian trip with a full plate: Preparing for a possible bird flu pandemic. Boosting global free-trade talks and tackling sticky trade issues with China. Promoting democracy. Keeping U.S. partners on track in ridding North Korea of its nuclear weapons programs.



White House officials predicted that Bush's visits to Japan, South Korea, China and Mongolia would produce few tangible breakthroughs. Analysts said that was appropriate, since the trip's value lies in countering a drift in the region away from the United States.

China is growing in economic and military might and in its global involvement, which is causing some to worry whether Beijing seeks to rival, or supplant, U.S. influence. Meanwhile, a new collection of Asian states known as the East Asia Summit added participation by Australia, New Zealand and India, but still excludes Washington.

"It is good for the president to show up in Asia and say, `We care about Asia,' because that is in doubt in the region," said Ed Lincoln, senior fellow in Asia and Economic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

White House aides had looked to a November packed with foreign travel as a way to help divert attention from Bush's domestic troubles and slumping poll numbers.

It hasn't worked out that way.

Democrats have seized on the indictment of Vice President Dick Cheney's top aide in the CIA leak case to raise anew that Bush's main justification for the 2003 Iraq invasion, that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, was wrong.

Continuing a counterattack that began Friday with a sharp rebuke to his critics, the president was pausing at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska en route to Asia on Monday to promote his war-on-terror and Iraq policies.

Even while abroad lately, Bush hasn't always fared well. Just over a week ago, he saw his desires for a Western Hemisphere-wide free-trade pact dashed at a Latin American summit marked by violent anti-American protests.

The main reason for Bush's Asia trip is the annual summit of Pacific Rim leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, held this year in Busan, South Korea.

The president will press the 20 other APEC leaders to pay more attention to weapons proliferation, put early warning and information-sharing systems in place in case of bird flu outbreaks and add momentum to December talks on a new global trade pact.

On the sidelines, Bush will showcase his support for democratic reforms by meeting with the leaders of Malaysia and Indonesia — two moderate Muslim-majority nations that have turned in recent years to representative governments.

His first Asia stop is Kyoto, Japan, where on Tuesday he will give what aides bill as the speech of the week on the power of democracy, not only to better individual lives but contribute to the long-term prosperity of nations.

The remarks will hold up such nations as Japan, Australia and South Korea as models because of their strong democratic traditions and willingness to help establish democracy in places like Afghanistan and Iraq.

But the speech is clearly aimed, at least in part, at communist China. "There's going to be a lot of change in Chinese society and these are things that will help the Chinese move forward," Mike Green, the National Security Council's senior director for Asia, said in describing the message.

But Lincoln, the Council on Foreign Relations analyst, said it could be a big mistake for Bush to open an Asian journey with a speech that could unnecessarily provoke Beijing, especially when the centerpiece of the week is a state visit to China.

Aside from the contents of the speech, Lincoln said Bush should think twice before choosing Japan as the backdrop. Japanese-Chinese relations are tense lately, not least because of a recent visit by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to a Tokyo shrine that recalls for many Japan's militaristic past and its World War II invasion of China.

What's more, Bush is closing his trip in Mongolia, on China's doorstep, to deliver another speech that celebrates the former communist country's emerging democracy.

"To me, (China) seems like the kind of country you want to handle in a somewhat delicate way, rather than kick them in the rear," Lincoln said.

That's especially true given the high stakes in the U.S.-China relationship. Bush plans to press China to revalue its currency, reduce its vast trade surplus with the United States and curb the piracy of American movies, software and other copyright material.

China's leadership in six-party talks with North Korea aimed at ending Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions also will be a key topic when Bush meets with Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing.

Since Japan and South Korea are also U.S. partners in those negotiations, Bush will also be working the issue when he sits down with Koizumi in Kyoto and spends a day with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun ahead of the APEC meetings.

Military ties are another major issue with all three countries. U.S. officials worry about a huge military buildup in China, a realignment plan was recently announced for U.S. troops in Japan, and the Pentagon has begun a major drawdown of American forces in South Korea.